Teva stalled out? Maybe? Like the rest of the space, TEVA has had a nice ride, but maybe time to step aside. See the article and chart.

 

Don’t be surprised if Teva’s ($TEVA) revenue numbers don’t meet analysts’ expectations in 2015. According to the company’s forecasts, generic competition to top-seller Copaxone and foreign currency hits will take their toll on Teva’s top line next year.

The generics giant forecast net revenues of $19 billion to $19.4 billion for the year, below the $20.1 billion analysts predicted, Reuters notes. That’s factoring in two generic Copaxone competitors–from a Novartis’ ($NVS) Sandoz and Momenta Pharmaceuticals team, and a Mylan ($MYL) and Natco Pharma partnership–that Teva assumes will launch in September. If those rivals hit the MS star early, it could cut into operating income by $30 million to $50 million per month, said.

Copaxone won’t be Teva’s only drug suffering from competition, either. Its generic version of AstraZeneca’s ($AZN) Pulmicort will face additional challengers starting in the first half of the year, the Israeli company said. That competition will drag revenues down by $400 million to $500 million. On top of that, it’s bracing for a $700 million hit from foreign exchange rate fluctuations compared with 2014, it said.

But there are bright spots. Teva expects profitability in its core generics business–which CEO Erez Vigodman has said he wants to refocus on–to grow next year as the company moves away from less profitable markets and continues cutting costs. The generic unit should bring in between $9.1 billion and $9.5 billion, Teva figures.

“Generics remain at the heart of our business,” Vigodman said in a statement.

While that may be true, the company will still be going hard in specialty drugs. It anticipates four specialty product approvals and 5 submissions next year “which we believe will improve treatment options for patients and add value for all of our stakeholders,” Vigodman said.

And the long-acting version of Copaxone–under patent till 2030–has so far posted a conversion rate that’s blown some analysts away. Teva’s still aiming for a 65% conversion in the U.S., which would ward off much of the generics threat. It’s preparing to take the drug overseas, too. The long-acting formula will roll out in the EU and other countries starting in 2015’s first quarter, Teva said.

http://www.fiercepharma.com/story/teva-sets-2015-sales-forecast-1b-lower-analysts-expected/2014-12-11